No.
McCain was trailing Obama and Hillary in the polls most of summer by at the most 6-7 points.
By the end of August he had closed the gap to within 2 points. This was pre-Palin.
Palin did give him an initial boost which thrust him ahead of Obama, but it faded.
That was a combination of people actually hearing Palin speak and the financial collapse of autumn.

Palin isn't full on crazy, she is just folksy and unpolished. Or at least she was. She has came a looong way since.

 

-----signature-----

Folksy and unpolished in Republican speak, is a euphemism for she will participate in exorcisms and shoot stuff just to watch it die.

 

-----signature-----

Mmm, not so much.

A lot of us thought she was a good pick for McCain. That's not the same as thinking she was a good candidate for VP, though there were some in that camp too. Bonk was a pretty big cheerleader for her in those days.

http://vnboards.ign.com/outpost/b22180/108394881/p1/?17

http://vnboards.ign.com/outpost/b22180/108395724/p1/?58

And the thread you're referring to, you argued mostly with GC and Baym and a little with Rosie and Moe. Not really the same as being flamed by everybody on the Outpost, I'd say.

http://vnboards.ign.com/outpost/b22180/108466150/p1

The second thread there also has some outstanding examples of Conservative AT at his peak.

 

-----signature-----

No. On the first day of the RWN convention McCain was losing by 6. Three days after the convention he was winning by 3. A 10 point swing, mostly attributable to Palin.


Then the economy collapsed and he lost his chance.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#chart

You linked the same thread twice and it wasn't the one with me arguing with anyone.


But I'll take your word for it.


Reading those other threads you can easily see that my basic point is correct. Almost everyone thought Palin was great when McCain first named her. People mostly didn't realize she was a brainless moron until after the election, when it suddenly became an article of faith that McCain lost because she was his VP and everyone saw through her immediately.

By your own graph you completely dismiss the week before where McCain was just a couple points behind.

McCain had trailed continuously but was making up ground.
Ofcourse she generated some interest, she was new and untainted initially, but that faded quickly with interviews.
Again I think he still would have lost without Palin, but Palin was an anchor not a buoy.

 

-----signature-----

Fixed.

A lot of conservatives and a few so-called moderates bought into her act, but I don't think there was much in terms of heartfelt support for her. A lot of it was political trolling. Conservatives here were practically giddy the first time the word "experience" was dropped in connection with Palin.

That said, Palin was intended as a game-changer (I'm almost hesitant to use that term with the upcoming movie on the topic). McCain may have been close in the polls but nowhere near where he needed to be on the electoral map in August. McCain got a bit of a bump for it - probably slightly more than the average post-convention bump - but quickly sank even before the interviews and debates showed just how dense she really was. If you want to pat yourself on the back for noticing it sooner than most of us, be my guest I suppose.

 

-----signature-----

And then at the start of the convention he was just as far behind as he had been months ago.


The graph shows what it shows. We can argue about little details here and there but the basic picture is very clear. McCain was consistently trailing all across the summer until he announced his VP pick, when he suddenly went from 6 behind to 3 ahead, a 10 point swing.


He stayed ahead until September 15. Precisely after that date the graph swings around and Obama runs away with it.


Guess what happened on September 15? I'll give you a hint: it wasn't a bad Palin interview.

McCain never had a chance. No Republican did.

Democrats knew this and that's why they took the chance on nominating a total noob. They could have nominated a cup of coffee and still beat the best Republican that year.

 

-----signature-----

The only way the Dems would have known it was safe to nominate a noob is if they had known 6 months before it happened that Lehman was going bankrupt on September 15 and the world economy was about to fall apart.