Thats it, this game is dead. Lock down these boards, turn out the lights.

 

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It is clearly a drop in NA/EU subscriptions since Asia got CAT a couple of weeks ago.


I wonder if we know what is the income % generated out of NA/EU in comparison to Asia. I would not be surprised that Asia, although numbers are impressive generates less revenues in view of the business model popular there.


Their profit margin will be affected if they keep losing subscription from whealthy areas and heads will start rolling; never forget it is a public company and such company has a 3-month patience. Unfortunatly, they will likely bring a new manager who will only change management, implement new management procedures but do little on the real issues.

 

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Now that's funny. I'll be the first to admit that EVERYONE stops playing WoW from time to time, but players gone for good? I haven't seen that happen yet, and I've been a WoW player since the earliest open beta.

You could be right this time since every dog has his day (and whiny naysayers only have to be right once, lucky bastards), but I think the old girl has life in her yet.

 

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Umm I don't think anybody with any sense thinks that the game is going to roll over and die right now. Nor do I think that anybody with any sense thinks that WoW doesn't have some legs left.

When you have as many players and popularity that WoW has the decline and drop will be a slow one, a bleeding, which is what we are now witnessing. Unlike more recent "WoW Killers" that have released in recent years. I think TOR, will go with this one since it is releasing sooner, has the best chance at being able to take and retain subs from WoW. The one reservation I have about the game is that once you strip it down to its core mechanics, it sill plays like WoW, the combat, the class roles, and the questing structure. With the current Rate of decline in subs you will most likely have about 1.2-1.5 million subs lost before TOR comes out. Add in say about 500k-1 million lost in subs due to the release of this game, with a retention level of players for that game at about 50%, that will be another 250-500k subs lost. So you are much closer to all of a sudden having 2 million subs lost, and depending upon how well received TOR is among the MMO population, more subs being lost in that direction.

Then you add in Guild Wars 2 to this equation, a game I think will have a bigger impact than TOR due to its push to innovate and reinvigorate the genre as a whole. If this releases in the spring of 2012 some time, that is only roughly a 4-5 month period of time after TOR's release. So you have further subscription loss of players who move onto that game. Also since GW 2 will be a free to play model it has a higher chance of retaining players since you don't have to pay anything to actually play that game, except buy the game. By this point time next year WoW could easily have lost anywhere between 2.5-3.5 million players due to its stale design after 7 years and other fresher games out on the market.

 

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Alex, I'd like "Pull Some Random Numbers Out of My Ass" for $1000 please.

Alex I'd like "People who understand the meaning of Analysis for 2000"

It called Analysis for a reason, the numbers aren't pulled completely from thin air. 900k subs have been lost in the past two quarters, this constitutes a trend, which then you can actually say that if X trend continues this will be the numbers. If the trend continues as it has, 600k then down to 300k then perhaps next quarter it will be 150 thousand. You then average the numbers and you can come up with a good estimate as far as what the sub loss would be during X quarter.

You then add in an rough estimate as to what you think X game will then sell and take away from your subscription base, as well as continue to add in the rough estimate of the trend of subscriptions lost, if that trend does indeed continue. You then add all these numbers together and average them together and you get a rough estimate as far as what a projected loss, or gain because it can be done in the opposite direction as well, will occur.

All major corporations actually hire and employ people to do what I just did in the above. In no way have I portrayed that the numbers are accurate they are an estimation though based on the current trend and past trends that take place when games launch. The only trend that took place last time with new games that I don't think will occur this time around is having a good portion of the player base returning shortly after X games have released.

 

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I disagree with that part. As much as I'm waiting for GW2 above any other game, you seem to ignore that most "basic" people hate change. The average WoW player will not like GW2, because the game doesn't imitate his all time favorite gameplay mechanics. No "holy trinity". Combats full of dynamism and special effects. The average WoW player won't like that, he wants 25 man raids with purple drops.

 

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Agree to disagree then, I think you are ignoring the craving that has been expressed for change and the desire to finally play something different. If people were so against change and still looking for a similar experience to WoW, then games in recent pasts that have followed the WoW model would have been able to retain better subscription numbers and not lose them back to WoW. Of course the merits of what each of these games have done to try differentiate itself from WoW could argued back and forth, as well as quality of production or end game. Many of the main arguments why people go back to WoW after leaving it is because even though these games are different from it, it still follows the same basic model that WoW is based around. A model that has been followed by every MMO game for the last seven years basically.

I mean how many WoW killers have been hyped up before, but have failed even with the features that differentiate these games from WoW. So then it is necessary to break down what it is that players are really craving when trying out new games. Is it a new setting? It is a different feature set? In the end once breaking all this down, it boils down to the fact that what players aren't looking for is different feature sets, because if players were really afraid of change, they wouldn't go out and try out new games to try to find as replacement for WoW to begin with, they would just stick with WoW. Player are in fact looking for a change, when they are out there trying new MMOs.

Yet, what are they getting when these new MMOs come out, despite changes in settings and feature sets that try to differentiate itself from WoW, the basic core of the game is the same, class roles and structure, questing structure, and even end game. All have followed a same model for the last 7 years that has been established by WoW. Once you get rid of the feature sets what it boils down to is the fact that the game plays similar to WoW. I no longer like using the term WoW clone because in the end it is a model that is being followed in the end, with WoW being the King of that particular MMO Design Model.

It is one of the major reservations I have about TOR in the end because once I look past the feature sets and that it is Star Wars, that do look good and interesting mind you, the game looks like it is going to play very similar to WoW, down to combat, questing, and of course class structure. It could be said why reinvent the wheel, when the wheel isn't broken. The problem being that after 7 years of games following a similar model, the wheel is broken and needs repairing badly.

It is why it is my opinion after examining and analyzing what has taken place in the genre since I started playing it and following it that I think the reason the next WoW killer after the next WoW killer hasn't succeeded isn't because of them not changing the game model, it is the game model itself that has caused failures and keeping with the thought that if the wheel isn't broken, don't fix it. Hence, why I think Guild Wars 2 will actually impact numbers more than TOR. Bioware went with the mentality of the wheel isn't broken, we'll just evolve that wheel from stone to wood with spokes. Arena Net has said that the wheel is indeed broken and needs a major repair job and are attempting to finally reinvent the MMO wheel so to speak.

As I said, if it isn't the Model that prevents the previous "WoW Killers" from actually succeeding, LOTRO, Aion, WAR, Rift etc. then what is it? Of course each of one these games are perhaps better examples than some others, from a quality and production value standpoint as well as various feature sets that were supposed to be more innovative. If players are leaving WoW and complaining about 45 minute wait times as a DPS or we can't find a tank, or a healer or whatever other valid complaints they have against the game, when going out looking at a new game, they are actually looking for exactly that something new and different, not more of the same that they have in WoW. Hence the reason why after checking out X game, most have gone back to playing WoW, because all of these games have the same basic model and structure.

 

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25man raids? nope, the average wow player wants spoon feed content like the aoe fest in wotlk which can be played by a monkey

 

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