I'm neither agreeing nor disagreeing with you.

 

-----signature-----

I can;t believe you think it isnt

The only thing that happens here is Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Volcanoes.

There have been no Tsunamis, one Volcanic eruption, and at least 4 earthquakes here that I've been around for.

Of course, there are many more earthquakes, but I mean ones that are big enough to be felt by humans.

So I'm more worried about Earthquakes, they're far more likely to kill me than the other two combined.

 

-----signature-----

You must have missed the "statistically speaking" part of what I said.

On a side note, fewer objects doesn't mean there will be less of a chance of impact. An object could hit our moon or a moon of one of the other planets and blow off a chunk of it which could change the odds entirely. Tidal forces of Jupiter or Saturn could tear apart one of their moons or cause them to collide (some are likely to do that in time). Knock a moon out of Jupiter's orbit and have it hit anything else can easily cause a chain reaction leading to an Earth impact.

We still get bombarded on a daily bases by small objects. A rock flying fast enough through space, even one the size of a refrigerator, could make a very big hole and cause a whole lot of collateral damage. It is not a matter of "if" it is a matter of "when".

Is it likely to happen soon? Not really, but it's also not likely that I'll ever see a typhoon or volcanic eruption in Michigan, either. Tornadoes are the only thing on the list we get much of and even those are rare.

 

-----signature-----

So HV, I understand those things can happen, but you don't believe that having half the debris in our space cuts the odds exactly in half?

 

-----signature-----

Half the number does not, in fact, cut the odds in half. It would very much depend on which objects were removed. The lighter ones? The heavier ones? Ones close together or far apart? Etc., etc., etc. A heavier object passing near a lighter object will affect the trajectory of the lighter object much more than the heavier one, but both will be affected.

It is the complexities of the interactions between the objects in space that make it very hard to predict what will happen exactly.

 

-----signature-----

Humor me for a moment HV. Let's suppose you have to make 2 runs across a football field. On run one there are 20 marksmen with all different calibers of riffles shooting at you. On run 2 half of them have been removed. Are you chances of getting hit on run 2 cut in half or not?

 

-----signature-----

Nope. Now the shooters are warmed up and have had time to practice!

 

-----signature-----

Again I say, it depends on which marksmen are removed, the ones with good aim or the ones with bad aim. My odds could improve depending on your answer.


How many times are you going to keep asking the same question and expect a different answer? Ben Franklin has a saying for this behavior.

 

-----signature-----

Well HV, it is totally beyond me how you can say one certain type of debris is removed and another remains. I don't think anything on this can be proven one way or another. I only know that impacts become more rare over time. Why? Because for every impact the is one less body floating around looking for a target. It is known that the moon was not created when the earth was. And the moon has a lot of damage from impacts to it right now. And at this time they have virtually been eliminated. Just look at the evidence. It's out there.

 

-----signature-----