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Topic:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 13,000 to 348,000 [Locked] |
Rosaria  Title: They call me Mellow Yellow, quite rightly.
Posts: 477
Registered: 2003-8-22 10:07:30
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 13,000 to 348,000 |
Sin_of_Onin posted:
When I say high stakes gambling I mean people investing in CDS that are not doing it to counter their exposure to some underlying bond. Ie, if you own Greek bonds you could buy a CDS which lowers your return while lowering your risk. You can also just bet that Greece will default without holding the underlying debt. In the first case it is basically just insurance, in the second it is gambling.
I think only the banks know how much they have to lose in the various scenarios but as I already pointed out they won’t be caught off guard and will have made moves to protect themselves months ago. Those moves can end up killing other companies though. Happened to AIG.
China will continue to move slowly towards reducing their monetary manipulation IMO but politics in both countries will prevent major changes from happening until after the Presidential election.
There are always concerns but at least the US is starting to get back on its feet. It can get knocked back down but I think the world economy is finally starting to realize just how stupid imbalanced capital flows are.
Its all gambling Sin because Greece has the option of denying or stopping the process once its begun yet significant amounts of money have already changed hands. It can do it one month, two months [I dont think this is going to last that long anyway], whatever. Do you think if there is another AIG scenario that there will be further public funds offered to assauge the loss? I absolutely agree that the US has made gains. I don't believe that the world has learned or realized any such thing about imbalanced capital flows because I don't see any evidence of that.
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"Them Bollinger Bands on the DJIA are starting to look like columns of projectile vomit." ~ Red Pill
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Rosaria Title: They call me Mellow Yellow, quite rightly.
Posts: 477
Registered: 2003-8-22 10:07:30
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 13,000 to 348,000 |
Groucho48 posted:
Rosaria posted:
Groucho48 posted:
I'll state right up front that the situation in Europe is far too complex and technical fro me to grasp.
I do have a question. How big a haircut are the financial institutions taking?
Is that a joke question?
No. Everyone is calling for austerity for UK, for Ireland, for Spain, for Greece, so that the banks can be paid back. S, the natural question is...do the financial institutions who made the stupid loans suffer any consequences?
There are potentially enormous losses for private institutions; they do have some options but they are going to lose in either event. In the case of Greece private institutions were 'incentivized' to go into the rescue package but whether or not the ECB is going to let those losses stand in the long run [ten to thirty years] is guesswork. What that potentially means for people with money in those banks is that they are also going to experience bank manipulations in order for the bank to survive, much as what we have seen in the US. Given that the EU never really crawled out of the recession and still has high unemployment that means credit will start crunching even moreso than it already is.
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"Them Bollinger Bands on the DJIA are starting to look like columns of projectile vomit." ~ Red Pill
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Sin_of_Onin  Posts: 1,307
Registered: 2005-6-29 08:21:12
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 13,000 to 348,000 |
Rosaria posted:
Its all gambling Sin because Greece has the option of denying or stopping the process once its begun yet significant amounts of money have already changed hands. It can do it one month, two months [I dont think this is going to last that long anyway], whatever. Do you think if there is another AIG scenario that there will be further public funds offered to assauge the loss? I absolutely agree that the US has made gains. I don't believe that the world has learned or realized any such thing about imbalanced capital flows because I don't see any evidence of that.
I'll address backwards...
The issue has even made wikipedia... I think there is decent evidence.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_payments
Yes there will be some move by the European governments to try and deal with the fallout of the Greece mess.
Greece can walk away from those deals you are right. That is why default is still a possibility.
There will be a lot of pain but I think the US will continue to plod along.
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Rosaria Title: They call me Mellow Yellow, quite rightly.
Posts: 477
Registered: 2003-8-22 10:07:30
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 13,000 to 348,000 |
Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:
@Groucho I haven't paid attention the last 3 weeks but the last deal I heard rejected was: private institutions take a 70% haircut, or, stretch out their loans another 30-ish years with a 30-ish percent haircut.
Rosie may have more specifics. I took my eye off the ball there recently. Got tired of waiting to hear the rumor of the day. They won't arrive at anything real until end of Feb, earliest. Deadlines are around mid-March.
I think they have thirty days but this is the EU and that may get extended. We are talking about billions of EUROs at risk.
-----signature-----
"Them Bollinger Bands on the DJIA are starting to look like columns of projectile vomit." ~ Red Pill
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Rosaria Title: They call me Mellow Yellow, quite rightly.
Posts: 477
Registered: 2003-8-22 10:07:30
|
Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 13,000 to 348,000 |
Sin_of_Onin posted:
There will be a lot of pain but I think the US will continue to plod along.
I hope so, it has taken enormous effort and even some gambling on our part to get this far. Let me put it this way, I have more faith that the international banking community will enormously fuck up than I do that sovereigns will continually and effectively clean up their mess. This is not to say that sovereigns don't have their role in this as well. We are speaking of enormous losses by both sovereigns and private banking institutions. This is really going to test our firewalls.
-----signature-----
"Them Bollinger Bands on the DJIA are starting to look like columns of projectile vomit." ~ Red Pill
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Groucho48  Posts: 821
Registered: 2003-10-22 03:00:14
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
Weekly initial jobless claims down 13,000 to 348,000 |
Abaddon_Ambrosius posted:
@Groucho I haven't paid attention the last 3 weeks but the last deal I heard rejected was: private institutions take a 70% haircut, or, stretch out their loans another 30-ish years with a 30-ish percent haircut.
Rosie may have more specifics. I took my eye off the ball there recently. Got tired of waiting to hear the rumor of the day. They won't arrive at anything real until end of Feb, earliest. Deadlines are around mid-March.
Thanks for the reply. So, they do have some skin in the game. Good to know. I would think the 30 year extension with a 30% haircut isn't too bad a deal for them, depending on interest rates and such. Probably a better deal than the citizens of the countries are getting.
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“Science is like sex: sometimes something useful comes out, but that is not the reason we are doing it.†– Richard Feynman
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