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Author Topic: CBO says jobless benefits encourage joblessness [Locked]
theredkay1  3 stars
Posts: 611
Registered: 2008-5-16 10:37:09
CBO in 2010 posted:

In CBO’s assessment, the extensions of unemployment insurance benefits in the past few years increased both employment and participation in the labor force over what they would otherwise have been in 2009.


The increase in the size of the labor force and the reduced intensity of job searches considered alone would tend to increase the unemployment rate. However, other effects of the extensions work in the opposite direction—making assessing the overall effect of the extensions on the unemployment rate in 2009 difficult.



http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/119xx/doc11960/11-17-UnemploymentInsurance.pdf


CBO in 2012 posted:

Factors Causing High Unemployment

Many factors are responsible for the rise in unemployment in general and in long-term unemployment in particular. Explanations include the following:

? Weak demand for goods and services, as a result of the

recession and its aftermath, which results in weak

demand for workers;

? Mismatches between would-be employers’ needs and

the skills or location of the unemployed;

? Incentives from extensions of unemployment insurance

for people to stay in the labor force and continue

searching for work;



http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/127xx/doc12757/02-16-Unemployment.pdf


So unemployment insurance works against the #1 cause of unemployment...weak demand. It does cause higher unemployment as it causes people to keep looking for work instead of dropping out.


Abaddon_Ambrosius  4 stars
Title: Retired Theurgist TL
Posts: 1,674
Registered: 2001-12-21 09:51:39
Ashmaele posted:

So when unemployment benefits run out, the person for whom they just ran out is no longer considered part of the labor force? That's really dum



I agree. So do a lot of others. That's why so many just ignore the politicized "unemployment rate" figure.

If you're not talking the U6 unemployed-and-underemployed number, you're not even close to touching the topic with any honesty.

 

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Groucho48  3 stars
Posts: 821
Registered: 2003-10-22 03:00:14
Lyken-P posted:

Remnant_OBrien posted:

Quote:

“In order to remain eligible for unemployment benefits, more people without jobs have continued looking for work — though, in some cases, less intensely and more selectively than they otherwise would have — after the normal 26-week benefit period,” CBO said. “In that way, the extensions of benefits have kept more jobless individuals in the labor force, thereby pushing up the unemployment rate by roughly one-quarter of one percentage point.”



Correct me if i'm wrong but doesn't this say that unemployment benefits actually keep people from giving up on job searches?
Its not that unemployment benefits encourages joblessness. It's that unemployment benefits keep more people active in the category that counts in our current unemployment measures... Otherwise more people would fall out of that category, reducing the overall size of the counted labor pool and thus increasing unemployment (under this measure) but not others.

Bolded the phrasing you are glossing over.



More selectively means folks won't have to take minimum wage jobs in North Dakota. The fact that a person on unemployment doesn't have to take any lousy job offered is a good thing, though, as with all good things, it can be abused. In NYS, there are rules about it. I think you can reject a job if the salary was more than a certain % lower than what you were making, or, if it requires you to move, or, is in a field outside your experience.

 

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Lyken-P  2 stars
Posts: 453
Registered: 2006-1-14 18:41:19
Ashmaele posted:

So when unemployment benefits run out, the person for whom they just ran out is no longer considered part of the labor force? That's really dum

It's always been that way... that's why people always they the unemployment number is 'x"... but really it's more closer to "X" Like now, how it's closer to 15% and not the 8% number you hear in the news.
Z-Elder  3 stars
Posts: 671
Registered: 2002-3-15 13:58:39
The best time of my life was my pork days! GI bill, VA benefits, and 1 year unemployment!

Bass fishing. Quail, Duck, and Dove hunts. Bow season, shotgun season, and the regular season.

Now that was a stimulas package!

 

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theredkay1  3 stars
Posts: 611
Registered: 2008-5-16 10:37:09
Ashmaele posted:

So when unemployment benefits run out, the person for whom they just ran out is no longer considered part of the labor force? That's really dum



labor force consists of an estimate of employed people, a count of people on unemployment...and an estimate of people looking for jobs but not on unemployment insurance. So they fall into that last group.
Yukishiro1  4 stars
Posts: 3,243
Registered: 2002-9-20 23:52:57
Of course they do. Why would anyone even debate it?


If you're getting 450 bucks a week you are going to have less of an edge to find a job than if you're getting 0 bucks a week.


That doesn't mean UI is a bad idea.
Lyken-P  2 stars
Posts: 453
Registered: 2006-1-14 18:41:19
Yukishiro1 posted:

Of course they do. Why would anyone even debate it?

If you're getting 450 bucks a week you are going to have less of an edge to find a job than if you're getting 0 bucks a week.

That doesn't mean UI is a bad idea.


Very first words of the article... "Generous unemployment benefits are a great way to boost the economy in the short term..."
Testerion  3 stars
Posts: 549
Registered: 2001-12-28 03:07:47
CHANCE OF STARVING TO DEATH IF YOU CANT FIND JOB DOES WONDERS TO MOTIVATION.

 

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Sin_of_Onin  4 stars
Posts: 1,307
Registered: 2005-6-29 08:21:12
Yukishiro1 posted:

Of course they do. Why would anyone even debate it?


If you're getting 450 bucks a week you are going to have less of an edge to find a job than if you're getting 0 bucks a week.


That doesn't mean UI is a bad idea.



Yeah the more interesting claim is the one concerning the payroll tax cut on companies being more effective. Although I have a hard time believing that one mostly because the cuts are temporary. A temporary cut to payroll taxes for a company won't have much of an impact on employment decisions compared to a permanent cut. A temporary boos to consumers will likely be spent though. Neither are great options IMO and it is no surprise they ranked the UI extension at the top.

 

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