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Author Topic: The situation for Romney [Locked]
GrilledCheez  4 stars
Title: The Lord's Balls
Posts: 1,060
Registered: 2006-3-22 11:06:32
 Date Posted: 1/1/00 12:00am Subject: The situation for Romney
traditional wisdom is often stupid. That is the case here. The reason that "moderates decide elections" is because the base picks the candidates. If the base for some reason doesn't pick the candidate or you are wishfully thinking about overriding the base to pick a candidate moderates want, then moderates vote would be predictable and the disenfranchised base would decide the election.

Of course all that is irrelevant because Paul is a moron that appeals in large percentages neither to the base nor to moderates. So you are as wrong as you could possibly be. coincidentally just like Ron Paul.

 

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Groucho48  3 stars
Posts: 821
Registered: 2003-10-22 03:00:14
 Date Posted: 1/1/00 12:00am Subject: The situation for Romney
This is from the Great Orange Satan, so, treat it how you will. They took, for every state, the last 5 polls and averaged them and looked at the results. This is what they found...


Quote:
Let's take the mystery out of it right at the outset—if the election were held today, Barack Obama would, in all probability, be re-elected rather easily over Mitt Romney. The polling average in each state, with no adjustments, would give Barack Obama 347 electoral votes, versus 191 electoral votes for Mitt Romney.

With current polling, Barack Obama's 2008 coalition remains dramatically intact. He would lose Indiana, where the sole poll in the race (the aforementioned Donnelly poll) had Mitt Romney up by four points. I'm also ceding the sole Nebraska electoral vote to Romney, though that's far from a lock. The average of the two polls there (one by PPP in October, and a more recent one by the House of Ras) is a Romney lead of 15 points. But John McCain won here in 14.9%, and Obama narrowly claimed the 2nd district.

Aside from that, Barack Obama holds every other state he claimed in 2008. Some of the margins are pretty tight, however, suggesting that Mitt Romney could conceivably chip away at the Obama majority.
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Obama lead of 10+ points (201 electoral votes): Washington DC (+86); Rhode Island (+27.8); Hawaii (+27); Maryland (+25.4); Delaware (+25); Vermont (+25); New York (+21.8); Massachusetts (+19.8); California (+19.2); New Mexico (+14.3); Illinois (+14); New Jersey (+12.4); Oregon (+11.3); Connecticut (+11); Minnesota (+11); Maine (+10.8); Washington (+10.8)

Obama lead of 5-10 points (68 electoral votes): Wisconsin (+9.2); Michigan (+9); Virginia (+7.6); Pennsylvania (+6.6); Colorado (+5)

Obama lead of less than 5 points (78 electoral votes): New Hampshire (+3.8); Ohio (+3.2); Iowa (+2.2); Nevada (+2.0); Florida (+1.4); North Carolina (+0.8)

Romney lead of less than 5 points (32 electoral votes): Arizona (+2.6); Missouri (+3.6); Indiana (+4.0)

Romney lead of 5-10 points (88 electoral votes): Tennessee (+5.2); South Carolina (+6.8); Georgia (+7.8); Kentucky (+8.0); Texas (+8.0); Montana (+8.3); North Dakota (+8.7)

Romney lead of 10+ points (71 electoral votes): South Dakota (+11.0); Mississippi (+12.0); Arkansas (+13.2); West Virginia (+13.3); Nebraska (+15.0); Louisiana (+16.0); Kansas (+17.0); Alaska (+21.5); Alabama (+22.0); Idaho (+25.3); Oklahoma (+31.3); Utah (+32.0); Wyoming (+32.3)

 

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paulg_68  4 stars
Posts: 2,469
Registered: 2009-7-27 18:45:54
 Date Posted: 1/1/00 12:00am Subject: The situation for Romney
According to RealClearPolitics Romney polls best against Obama and still loses by 4.5%. Ron Paul does 2nd best losing by 8%.

It's important to note that even though Ron Paul is getting whupped by both Gingrich and Santorum he polls better in the general election.

It's also important to note that Ron Paul is doing this despite the fact that he's never had any support whatsoever from the party. If Ron Paul had won the Republican nomination, the party would have finally thrown their support behind him. He's only 3.5% behind Romney now despite the fact that the Romney has been the party choice since day 1.

I don't think it's out of the question that Ron Paul would do better in the general election than Romney if he could only get past the other Republican candidates.

 

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"Everyone has a chance to become rich." - Groucho48
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Sea_of_inK  2 stars
Posts: 488
Registered: 2004-10-18 12:57:37
 Date Posted: 1/1/00 12:00am Subject: The situation for Romney
He could run as a third party candidate.

He won't though, because of his son's career. Ron Paul has looked much more self serving in recent years, which I guess makes sense.

 

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paulg_68  4 stars
Posts: 2,469
Registered: 2009-7-27 18:45:54
 Date Posted: 1/1/00 12:00am Subject: The situation for Romney
Sea_of_inK posted:
Ron Paul has looked much more self serving in recent years


How so?

 

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If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch...
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"Everyone has a chance to become rich." - Groucho48
"Most of the human wealth on earth exists between the ears of live human beings." - theredkay1
Sea_of_inK  2 stars
Posts: 488
Registered: 2004-10-18 12:57:37
 Date Posted: 1/1/00 12:00am Subject: The situation for Romney
It's been especially bad since his son won in Kentucky. He's not going to piss off the GOP too much because his chapter is ending and Rand's is beginning. It's not about being a revolutionary any more or being elected president. That ship has sailed long ago. Everything he does now is a career move.

Did you see his latest ad?

He's had a several attack ad's like this for Gingrich and Santorum. Never Romney though.

 

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Sansfear  3 stars
Posts: 757
Registered: 2008-8-31 05:04:52
 Date Posted: 1/1/00 12:00am Subject: The situation for Romney
Groucho48 posted:
Obama lead of 10+ points (201 electoral votes): Washington DC (+86); Rhode Island (+27.8); Hawaii (+27); Maryland (+25.4); Delaware (+25); Vermont (+25); New York (+21.8); Massachusetts (+19.8); California (+19.2); New Mexico (+14.3); Illinois (+14); New Jersey (+12.4); Oregon (+11.3); Connecticut (+11); Minnesota (+11); Maine (+10.8); Washington (+10.8)





This election will be won/lost on voter turnout, and there isn't a lot of excitement on either side.

Obama will not come close to the massive turnout from 2008.

Romney isn't exciting enough either to get a huge turnout. Most of his votes are going to be votes against Obama.

If Santorum were somehow win the nomination, the turnout against him would be huge, though, so that would benefit Obama greatly and would assure a landslide victory for Obama.

I guess this will be the election where ever should care, but noone really does.

We'll see a slight increase in Republican turnout and a large decrease in Democratic turnout and the vote will be decided in the middle as it usually does.
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