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Topic:
February Pending Home Sales
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-Espiritu-
Posts: 269
Registered: 2004-11-29 18:27:00
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
February Pending Home Sales
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So far inflation has only affected the things people have to buy. I wonder how staunch the Fed will be after six months of $4+ gas. Heck, bananas went up 10% in February. Will another 20-30% in food stuffs be easilly absorbed by the US consumer? As was stated earlier, there still hasn't been a recovery in wages to match.
I agree that the Fed will not raise rates. I'm really just questioning whether they could if they wanted to.
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Espiritu - SWTOR (retired)
Espiritu (MajorMUD, UO, DAoC, SB, FFXI, WoW, WAR, Travian, SC2, SWTOR)
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
February Pending Home Sales
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theredkay1 posted:
Feb 2012 was 8% above Feb 2011. 0.2% above the prior 3 month average. And it was higher than the initial Jan 2012 number reported last month.
1 month of data doesnt make a trend and this number isnt a bad one.
edit - this is a seasonally adjusted number. The unadjusted number was 12% above January and 11% above Feb 2011.
For 50 or more years before the housing bubble, on average, interest rates hovered around 8 or 9%. This must have been a healthy average for some reason. If this is equilibrium, then surely we'll find it again. Savers have to stop being punished at some point.
When interest rates rise, and they have to start rising at some point, it will continue to drive house prices down.
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It is no measure of health to be well adjusted
to a profoundly sick society. - Jiddu Krishnamurti
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imaloon1
Posts: 674
Registered: 2003-9-15 07:19:53
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
February Pending Home Sales
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theredkay1 posted:
-Espiritu- posted:
@ZZ - I think you're missing the point in regard to the Fed and interest rates. Replace "we're not going to increase rates" with "we can't increase rates", and you get a more realistic view of the Fed's current situation. I'd love to hear how we are different from Japan, who hit 0.0% benchmark rate in 1999 and hasn't been able to successfully raise rates back up since then.
Japan has increased interest rates several times since then only to push them back down when the economy slowed.
Japan has tied itself in a knot. The government has tried large fiscal stimulus to push demand and growth, while the Bank of Japan has stomped on the economy every time inflation inched up.
So far the Fed has not shown the same zeal for eliminating inflation (and growth)
You do realize that you are making no sense and no point right?
I'm sure you do.... You always say this shit like it means a damn thing....
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The time draws nearer to your fate
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theredkay1
Posts: 611
Registered: 2008-5-16 10:37:09
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
February Pending Home Sales
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The Fed really doesnt have much influence on the price of oil. If Chinese consumers decide to buy a million new cars and the shale plays taper off quicker than expected, the Fed really should not respond by slowing the American economy. That would make no sense. As long as Bernanke is there I dont think the Fed would do something so foolish. The Fed targets inflation, not the short term price level of certain items.
Im not sure why they would have trouble raising rates if they wanted to. Japan and Europe both had success raising their equivalent of the Fed Funds rate (and shrinking the money supply). This may not mean higher interest rates on govt debt since thats really set by the market and not directly by the Fed. Although the market will likely respond with lower interest rates on gov't debt from a premature interest rate hike....as the long term outlook for the US economy would look quite bleak if the Fed decides to slow the US economy every time China buys a bunch of SUV's.
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Blue_arrow
Posts: 468
Registered: 2008-7-2 02:02:19
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
February Pending Home Sales
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nationwide average reg gas $3.90 it's china or http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51zgqWRN41L._SL250_.jpg
Meanwhile, natural gas futures hit a new 10-year low $2.226 per 1,000 cubic feet
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theredkay1
Posts: 611
Registered: 2008-5-16 10:37:09
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
February Pending Home Sales
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imaloon1 posted:
theredkay1 posted:
-Espiritu- posted:
I'd love to hear how we are different from Japan, who hit 0.0% benchmark rate in 1999 and hasn't been able to successfully raise rates back up since then.
Japan has increased interest rates several times since then only to push them back down when the economy slowed.
Japan has tied itself in a knot. The government has tried large fiscal stimulus to push demand and growth, while the Bank of Japan has stomped on the economy every time inflation inched up.
So far the Fed has not shown the same zeal for eliminating inflation (and growth)
You do realize that you are making no sense and no point right?
Bank of Japan has responded to the slightest whiff of inflation by raising rates and they have done this multiple times. The Fed has not done this and they have cryptically implied they will continue to tolerate some inflation. So this is one very key difference in how the two countries are handling their economy.
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theredkay1
Posts: 611
Registered: 2008-5-16 10:37:09
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
February Pending Home Sales
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B_Shinkicker posted:
theredkay1 posted:
Feb 2012 was 8% above Feb 2011. 0.2% above the prior 3 month average. And it was higher than the initial Jan 2012 number reported last month.
1 month of data doesnt make a trend and this number isnt a bad one.
edit - this is a seasonally adjusted number. The unadjusted number was 12% above January and 11% above Feb 2011.
For 50 or more years before the housing bubble, on average, interest rates hovered around 8 or 9%. This must have been a healthy average for some reason. If this is equilibrium, then surely we'll find it again. Savers have to stop being punished at some point.
Maybe this is just wordplay....but....
Savers arent being punished. Savings rates ultimately rely on the future growth rate and the supply of savers. If future growth looks stronger, people will pay more to get your savings and do something productive with it. If there is a shortage of savers, people will pay more to access the limited capital available. Right now growth looks slow and everyone on the planet is trying to save with the US government...and the US government is mostly responding by reducing their investments in the future.
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GrilledCheez
Title: The Lord's Balls
Posts: 1,060
Registered: 2006-3-22 11:06:32
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
February Pending Home Sales
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We are in an extremely depressed labor market. Most of the country is labor. The end.
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Another word for expensive is successful.
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Elkad
Title: aka Ebenezer
Posts: 407
Registered: 2003-9-11 22:20:55
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
February Pending Home Sales
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Of course housing is down. The low interest rates are falsely inflating prices, who would buy now?
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"I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty, than those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson
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-Espiritu-
Posts: 269
Registered: 2004-11-29 18:27:00
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Date Posted:
1/1/00 12:00am
Subject:
February Pending Home Sales
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http://www.businessinsider.com/shiller-real-chance-of-japan-like-housing-slump-2012-3
suburban housing will not rebound in our lifetime.
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Espiritu - SWTOR (retired)
Espiritu (MajorMUD, UO, DAoC, SB, FFXI, WoW, WAR, Travian, SC2, SWTOR)
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