It really depends on the housing market. Overall, though, the real reason the economy hasn't snapped back to pre-2007 levels is precisely because the housing crisis in many areas is still ongoing and prices have not yet hit bottom.

 

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209k on an expected 206k. Closest number to consensus in years. Third month in a row with less jobs than the prior month.


At this current rate, we will have 5% unemployement in 10 years (with 0% population growth). Of course our debt will be north of $30 Trillion (at least 150% of GDP).

 

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Well yeah, if we pass budgets proposed by idiots from Wisconsin that once again cut taxes on the wealthy we probably would be focked budget-wise.

 

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Yup, I've had a few places contact me also, from places I gave my resume to two years ago.

How is going from 19% to 25% a tax cut for the rich?

 

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It's pretty amazing that they kept your resume on file that long, I have never worked anywhere that did that. I clean ours out every six months.

 

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Thats not right.


Last month ADP reported 173K gain in January, 216K gain in February.


All 3 months are below December....but it seems more likely that December numbers were off and reported higher than what they were in reality.


Last month the 6 month average job gain was +171K. March is higher than that. And the new 6 month average is +186K.


ADP numbers dont track very well with the government numbers.....but its clear that both are steadily getting better.


If we are looking for takeoff speed and a sign that rapid expansion is coming....this was a bad report. If we just want to be sure that the good news over the winter wasnt an anomaly and slow growth is actually here, this is a good report.

200k/month isn't enough for real significant growth. It's better than losing jobs, though.

the adjustment for February was 230k. Which means March was less than February. Looking for the January adjustment, but you may be right that it was only the second straight month of less new jobs than the previous month.


I know that March is below the three month average though which include adjustments.


I disagree that this ADP report shows things getting better. I think it strengthens the belief in the new norm. 8% is the new 5% in unemployement, and 200k is the new 400k for new jobs. I expect there to be some 300k prints before the end of this year. It is really unnerving to think this is as good as it gets.

 

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Well, that would mean its the first straight month of less new jobs than the previous month.


The adjustments indicate we should probably wait until March is adjusted before making any real conjectures.


These kinds of numbers are very rough, even after 2 months of adjustments. It doesnt make sense that the economy boomed for 1 month in December before slowing down (these numbers are seasonally adjusted).


The numbers do show improvement, you really have to stretch and spin the numbers to erase signs of an improving labor market, but they certainly dont show things are as good as we could hope for.


Congress and the Fed have both pretty much said they are ok with this slow growth....we should demand more.

edit- A few unnamed Fed members expressed worry that labor costs (compensation) jumped a bit faster in recent months. Labor costs are still below where they were in 2008 and some Fed members are worried and use this as rationale against taking additional steps.