There's talk of trying to get Virgina to change its rules in time, and Perry is now suing the state to be put on the ballot, but the calendar doesn't look good for these initiatives. I'd say there's about an 80% chance that Virginia will have only these two names on the ballot. (And sorry, Newt, but they don't allow write-ins.) They might try to pull a Michigan from 2008 where they used an extremely wonky formula to distribute delegates to Obama despite him not being on the ballot, but right now the default is Romney versus Paul.
If Paul were just... Paul, then it wouldn't be a big deal, but he's currently poised to actually win Iowa. He could emerge from that race victorious, and solidify himself as a "serious" candidate. In Virgina, he would sew up the anti-Romney vote alone, plus Virginia doesn't require party registration. (They're trying this profanity "loyalty pledge," but while it might be legal to ask, it's not legal to actually require anyone to vote in any particular fashion.) Democrats who like Paul (I know, I know, but they do exist) or want to throw a wrench into the race can give him another big victory here.
Now, Virginia is 10% of the delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday. I definitely see the mechanics working in Paul's favor (not undeservedly, I admit) to turn this into a two-man race between Paul and Romney.
The question is, which sentiment is higher in the GOP: not-Romney or not-Paul? What would the GOP do if Paul actually cinched the nomination? Could any of the other not-Romneys get a good enough showing in other states to prevent this? I doubt the latter; only Huntsman out of the rest of the group has any resources to speak of, and people (rightly) hate his ass.
I don't see Paul winning the general, but stranger things have happened. I get chills at the thought of him being anywhere near fiscal and monetary policies, though I am less fearful of him than most other republicans in other matters such as foreign policy or supreme court nominees.
-----signature-----
"... We just need a president to sign this stuff... Pick a Republican with enough working digits to handle a pen to become president."
-Grover Norquist
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MICHIGAN - Where the trees are the right height!
-Grover Norquist
.
MICHIGAN - Where the trees are the right height!


